My full predictions - Updated

This is how I think this election is going to shape up, everything counted down to the very last electoral vote.

This list is based upon several polls publicized by CNN, and is updated as of 11/3

• Alabama - McCain, 9EV's
  
• Alaska - McCain, 3EV's (Land of Palin)
  
• Arizona - McCain, 10EV's (Land of McCain)
  
• Arkansas - McCain, 6EV's
  
• California - Obama, 55EV's
  
• Colorado - Obama, 9EV's
  
• Connecticut - Obama, 7EV's
  
• Delaware - Obama, 3EV's (Represented by Biden)
  
• Florida - Obama, 27EV's
  
• Georgia - McCain, 15EV's
  
• Hawaii - Obama, 4EV's (Land of Obama)
  
• Idaho - McCain, 4EV's
  
• Illinois - Obama, 21EV's (Represented by Obama)
  
• Indiana - McCain,* - 11EV's
  
• Iowa - Obama, 7EV's
  
• Kansas - McCain, 6EV's
  
• Kentucky - McCain 8EV's
  
• Louisiana - McCain 9EV's
  
• Maine - Obama, 4EV's, McCain 0EV's (Winner does NOT necessarily take all in this state.)
  
• Maryland - Obama, 10EV's
  
• Massachusetts - Obama, 12EV's
  
• Michigan - Obama, 17EV's
  
• Minnesota - Obama, 10EV's
  
• Mississippi - McCain, 11EV's
  
• Missouri - McCain,* 11EV's
  
• Montana - McCain, 3 EV's
  
• Nebraska - McCain, 5EV's
  
• Nevada - Obama, 5EV's
  
• New Hampshire - Obama, 4EV's
  
• New Jersey - Obama, 15EV's
  
• New Mexico - Obama, 5EV's
  
• New York - Obama, 31EV's
  
• North Carolina - Obama McCain, 15EV's
  
• North Dakota - Obama, 3EV's
  
• Ohio - Obama, 20EV's
• Oklahoma - McCain, 7EV's
  
• Oregon - Obama, 7EV's
  
• Pennsylvania - Obama, 21EV's (Land of Biden)
  
• Rhode Island - Obama, 4EV's
  
• South Carolina - McCain, 8EV's
  
• South Dakota - McCain, 3EV's
  
• Tennessee - McCain, 11EV's
  
• Texas - McCain, 34EV's
  
• Utah, McCain, 5EV's
  
• Vermont - Obama, 3EV's
  
• Virginia - Obama, 13EV's
  
• Washington - Obama, 11EV's
  
• West Virginia - McCain, 5EV's
  
• Wisconsin - Obama, 10EV's
  
• Wyoming, McCain, 3EV's
  

Conclusion: Barack Obama wins decisive victory, nearly 2:1 over John McCain. Never did I think it would be this close, but after checking the polls and doing the math, it's...

McCain: 182 217

Obama: 356  321
Update 11/3, NC to McCain; race is tightening greatly.

States with an asterisk (*) are WAY too close for any human being to call, and I went simply on past voting tradition and a hunch.

States in bold and underlined are large wins. This is my prediction, and I may amend it up to this Monday, November 3rd. Let's see how close I am!

Politics % World Series - Part II

Barack's "infomercial" was sensational and awe-inspiring, along with his live speech at the end. I guess this is where I bust through and confirm what everyone has known about me for a very long time.

I endorse Barack Obama for president.

As for the Series, the Rays pitching is sucking it up. I want them to win, but with 3 offensive outs left for them, I don't know that they could do it. Congratulations 2008 Phillies, World Series Champions.

White percipitate

En hiver, IL NEIGE! We all know it's snowing, and I love the snow. I just don't want to hear a million people scream "IT'S SNOWING!" about an hour after it began. We all know. Haha.

One day I don't want snow - day after Christmas. I'm very busy heading out to Long Island. Snow is something I could well do without.

Au revoir!

Why So Dramatic?

High School coincides with drama, I don't think anyone would argue that point. The Harvest Queen is coming up, and I'm not going to be able to attend, which has me saddened but hey, it could be worse. After all, I'm taking a trip with the OCAL team to Manhattan that day, so it should be fun either way. I just want to get out my disdain for those that bring drama unto themselves. I don't know too many of you people, because I tend to disassociate myself after a while, but I do know enough to ruin a good day, so let's all be happy, shall we? At this dance I don't want to see you crying because so-and-so doesn't want to dance, or so-and-so won't go with you. Suck it up. So what if they won't dance. It's not the end of the world, and you'll get over it. Their loss, they're missing out. So let's collectively take a deep breath and exhale. Loosen up. Things will be just fine. Just gotta get over it first. Few things are worth your tears.

Hmm...that came out a little spiritual. Haha, sorry.

Hypothetically...

I was thinking before about how much different this campaign would have been if Hillary Clinton had won, and a few things came to mind...

1. Palin would have likely not have been McCain's running mate.
2. I honestly believe McCain might have a slight edge in polls.
3. There would be no gaffe meter for Biden, but there would be one for Bill Clinton.
4. Democratic campaign speeches would have been circuitous and twice as long.
5. The words, "It's time for a female president!" would have resonated throughout America.
6. I would have endorsed John McCain.
7. I would have been extremely disappointed with the people running in this election.
8. I would wear a button that said "Rausch-Moreno '08."
9. I wouldn't have written up this blog post.

The list goes on forever, but I think you get the point. I detest Hillary Clinton, and will never support her as president. Thank God I don't have to.

OOPS!

Looks like Biden isn't the only one that gaffes from time to time. Check this clip from Palin.






Hmmmmm...

World Series and Politics

The candidates united last night to deliver a very special prologue to the World Series, which was all about how through thick and thin, baseball has always managed to bring a nation together, with no better example than 9/11. This resonates now more than ever being the financial crisis that we are all in. The video is posted on here, and it's really nice, I think. In other news, ALL OF US WON A FREE PRIZE.  (And I'm not kidding.)

Birthdays & Disconnect

Beginning with Chiara, the "Birthday Season" for my friends and family has begun.

1. Chiara
2. Mom's Mother
3. Father's Mother
4. Jess
5. Cousin Jackie/Aunt Michelle
6. Mom's Father
7. Father
   
8. Uncle Billy - Last birthday in 2008
9. Aunt Monica - 1/1
10. Step-Father
11. Jess/Max
12. Uncle Dan
13. Meghan
14. Kerianne
15. Sam/Christian 
16. Yours Truly
17. Martinez
18. Cristina M
19. Michelle G/Mom 3/19

That's a hell of a birthday list. I gotta get a job so I can buy gifts for all of these people. Oh, right, that's why I'm staying in LI for the summer.

-Hey guys, due to scheduling issues, etc I've been feeling a bit of disconnect with a few of you. Wanna hang out? I'm already planning something with Michelle and Caitlin, Greg, James, and maybe Meghan for the weekend of the Fourth.

-I'm pro life

-I do not support an amendment to legal marriage definition, but DO support civil unions

-I believe it's time to abdicate Iraq

-I think we need alternative energy within 10 years

-I think we're facing a huge financial crisis

-I also think getting a student loan just might possibly help me with college, so let's be forward thinking, yes?

I'd vote Barack.

Popular - Nada Surf

Hey guys. These lyrics aren't intended to insinuate anything, I just want you guys to read them. They're not meant to be taken literally. for anyone who hasn't heard the song, the video clip is right below. It's a very condescending and sarcastic song, but it's my favorite.

Three important rules for breaking up

Don't put off breaking up when you know you want to

Prolonging the situation only makes it worse

Tell him honestly, simply, kindly, but firmly

Don't make a big production

Don't make up an elaborate story

This will help you avoid a big tear jerking scene

If you wanna date other people say so

Be prepared for the boy to feel hurt and rejected

Even if you've gone together for only a short time,

And haven't been too serious,

There's still a feeling of rejection

When someone says she prefers the company of others

To your exclusive company,

But if you're honest, and direct,

And avoid making a flowery emotional speech when you brake the news,

The boy will respect you for your frankness,

And honestly he'll appreciate the kind of straight forward manner

In which you told him your decision

Unless he's a real jerk or a cry baby you'll remain friends

I'm head of the class

I'm popular

I'm a quarter back

I'm popular

My mom says I'm a catch

I'm popular

I'm never last picked

I got a cheerleader chick

Being attractive is the most important thing there is

If you wanna catch the biggest fish in your pond

You have to be as attractive as possible

Make sure to keep your hair spotless and clean

Wash it at least every two weeks

Once every two weeks

And if you see Johnny football hero in the hall

Tell him he played a great game

Tell him you like his article in the newspaper

I'm the party star

I'm popular

I've got my own car

I'm popular

I'll never get caught

I'm popular

I make football bets.

I'm a teachers pet

I propose we support a one month limit on going steady

I think It will keep people more able to deal with weird situations

And get to know more people

I think if you're ready to go out with Johnny

Now's the time to tell him about your one month limit

He wont mind he'll appreciate your fresh look on dating

And once you've dated someone else you can date him again

I'm sure he'll like it

Everyone will appreciate it

You so novel what a good idea

You can keep you time to your self

You don't need date insurance

You can go out with whoever you want to

Every boy, every boy, in the whole world could be yours

If you'll just listen to my plan

THE TEENAGE GUIDE TO POPULARITY

I'm head of the class

I'm popular

I'm a quarter back

I'm popular

My mom says I'm a catch

I'm popular

I'm never last picked

I'm a cheerleader chick

I'm the party star

I'm popular

I've got my own car

I'm popular

I'll never get caught

I'm popular

I'm a teachers pet

I make football bets.

SO COOL

So I was messing with this electoral vote counter on CNN.com that shows all states and their poll numbers and amount of electoral votes blah blah blah. Well, you should mess with it, and see, depending on who gets what states, who wins. 

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

I gave McCain all swing states, and gave Obama poll numbers that favor him by more than 4 points, and Obama was put over the 270 winning threshold, 272 to 266 (McCain). Not that close, to be quite honest, considering I gave McCain all swing states, which most likely will NOT happen.

My stances

Some of you guys assume where I stand. Actually, everyone does. I just think many of you are wrong, so here is where I stand:

• I was once a Republican...now I'm not. But I don't call myself a Democrat, either.
• I am pro-life, and adamant AGAINST amending marriage to consist of homosexual couples, as well. Civil unions are fine. Don't accuse me of hating gays...I have a couple in my family.
• I don't hate members of any party, no mater how radical they may be. Their insight helps everyone.
• I was for the War in Iraq before I understood it.
• I support the War in Afghanistan, to an extent.
• I do not see the Bush Administration as successful, but I do believe there has been worse.
• If there's one politician I can't stand, it's Hillary Clinton, and that's putting aside all personal prejudices.
• I find Sarah Palin to be extremely naive, and needing of a good slapping
• However, I don't personally dislike her other than her views and style of campaign.
• I may absolutely disagree with every word that comes out of your mouth, and you'll most certainly know I do, but I'll respect you and defend every word you say.
• What's by largest tick? Narrow-minded radicals that get frustrated easily.

Crushed by the Elephant

-In this post, I have a few controversial and probably way off line opinions I state, so if you're politically- sensitive or easily frustrated and unable to "agree to disagree" like Mark J, then please don't read this. I don't mind debating, but I don't feel like being thrashed or arguing.

     Alrighty, here we go. In these past days a new major problem has hit center stage. The Dow Jones has lost about 22% in 8 trading days, which is the worst the Dow has ever seen in it's history. The final day of a very painful week came in roller-coaster fashion. Shortly after opening, the Dow plunged to -697, and was turbulent all day long, up and down. It hit it's highest point at about +322, at which time the traders on the floor broke out into spontaneous cheer. That's an unprecedented swing of over 1000pts. That shows this economy is one ruled by fear. If one fears a bank will close, through mass hysteria (and just how humans are) we collectively panic, and everyone with a right mind sells whatever part of thaqt company that they own so that their investments in that company don't go to waste. The more that sell, the lower the price of a "share" in that company goes. It follows the laws of supply and demand. Less demand, lower price, right? The idea of a stock market crash is considered a self-fulfilling prophecy. The worse the stock market does, the more people try to sell their stock. The more that sell, the lower the stocks go. 

    -----

This crisis has reached a fever pitch among voters. It's taken place of the War in Iraq as the most important issue, and accordingly, has become the most talked about issue among both major candidates. This came after a week where traders were broken, the the stock market of Russia was shut down for one day after a loss of 19%. Rules are in place for the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) to halt trading for one hour if the market ever falls 10% below during the course of a trading day. If you do the math, it's easy to see that this is more likely to happen now than it was just one year ago. This time last year, the NYSE had an average point value of 14,000. A 10% loss would have required a point loss of 1400 in one day. Not an easy thing to do. Today? It takes but 860 points, a number we've come within 50 points of hitting. Through the crisis, both presidential campaigns have sought to spin their plans to Americans and convince them that their plan is better. Naturally, though this isn't necessarily a belief of mine, because John McCain is more easily tied to George W. Bush and his purported economic policy failures, John McCain suffers in a time like this. People turn to him asking what he has to offer, but then ignore the "meat and potatoes" of his plan, as he is a republican. There it is, guilty by association. In general, people turn to Obama's economic plans, which include taxing companies that outsource American labor and providing tax cuts to Americans earning <$250000/yr. However, if you really look into McCain's plan, it attempts to accomplish many of the same things, with the exception of the tax bracket based tax cut. It instead proposes tax cuts across the board, with cuts in spending, as the Obama plan intends as well. This brings me to my point -- I agree with many ideals that McCain does, as well. My largest criticism of the Obama camp is the legalization of abortion (EXCEPT in the event that the mother's life is in danger, or other extenuating circumstances. My largest criticism of the McCain camp is their plan on the War in Iraq. We need out. You can't defeat a religion (radical Islam) and it's costing us way too much. I wouldn't consider this a loss, we've just bitten off well more than we can chew. I strongly oppose an immediate withdrawal as Obama once proposed. Leaving the country within 60 days of his inauguration would be devastating. Let's give it a little longer. Other than that, I can't immediately point out where I hate the McCain camp. Until you get to Sarah Palin. I've never seen a more "mavericky" hockey mom. I still scratch my head wondering what the hell McCain was thinking when he picked this monster. She doesn't believe in global warming, which, sorry Kerianne, but is a major strike to me, and she echoes the words, "drill baby drill" without a mention of alternative energy. Even MCCAIN has alternative energy plans. In my opinion, Palin is one of the major strikes on the McCain ticket. It's my firm belief though, that picking Palin as his running mate, was a way that McCain showed a major weakness. Palin is the personified right-wing radical. McCain is not. McCain is one of the most moderate members of the senate that still designates himself a republican. McCain only holds true to the "republican" ideals of no gay marriage (but he fully supports gay rights like a married couple, and, in case you didn't know, Obama feels the same) and he is adamant against abortion except under certain health circumstances I mentioned before, such as health. McCain isn't as conservative as many think, which brings me to the title. McCain was crushed by the elephant. The republican elephant. I believe his choice in Sarah Palin exhibits this clearly. He wasn't strong enough to revolutionize the face of the party by stamping on his ideals, and instead caved in in picking a radical such as Palin. This might have been in an ill-advised attempt to gain Clinton's patrons, but obviously is hasn't worked, and McCain awakes today against a poll deficit of about 10 points. Perhaps it's just the category that has done McCain in up to now. 

Many of you probably think I'm an absolute moron. Let's not argue, but please, I'm really interested to know what you all have to think about the topic. Please comment.

WOOOOOOOOOOOH!!!

My comme-si comme-sa day just got really good. I don't think you guys care, but here's why:

I was browsing through the school news paper when "OCTOBER IN ALBUM RELEASES" caught my attention...so I anxiously glance down the list. BIG BANDS, BABY.

• Oasis - Dig Out Your Soul 10/6
• Rise Against - Appeal to Reason TODAY!!!!
• AC/DC - Black Ice 10/20
• Bloc Party - Intimacy* 10/28
• Snow Patrol - A Hundred Million Stars - 10/28

WOOOHHHH!!! There were a few other bands/artists but I don't care for them. WOOH, BLOC PARTY. This month suddenly got awesome for me.

Oh my god, that's FANTASTIC!

Merritt is definitely funny. Mean, cynical, but I enjoy his class. First thing in the morning - I thought it would be a terror, but it's not, it's a blessing, I swear. Now, I don't keep Merritt quote books, but I have a few funny things he's said scribbled around my notes, like, "Innotation. When you speak French, your voices rises and...what? Your voices rises? What the heck are you, schizo? *Proceeds to speak English while rapidly swinging the emphasis of his voice upward and downwards* We have clinics for people like you."

Vicky is coming to my French tomorrow to just hang out with me and Merritt. Cool. Yeah. Thought so. I should probably get going. Something needs tending to.

GO HERE

http://elise37.blogspot.com/
Go here, it'll make you pee.

MAVERICK!

Well, just a few days in and I already violated the NaBloPoMo rules. How wonderful! I guess I'm just not meant to be a daily blogger. (I never was in the first place.) Just because I don't blog daily doesn't mean I can't have riveting blog posts...but, let's not get ahead of ourselves, I'm not a riveting writer either way. I wanted to make a few comments about this last debate, and I really do encourage you guys to comment back with your views even if you think I'm so far off base that I should be thrown in a sewer.

My Thoughts

• Biden and Palin both spoke extremely well, and to be honest without sounding sexist, Palin did much better than I believed the would. Bravo!
• Palin seemed just slightly more composed and "in the game" than did Biden.
• Many questions were asked of the candidates witch neither of them would answer, but I found Palin to avoid more questions, preferring to speak about the war. 
• Though Biden was seemingly less presentable, he knew Obama's policy like no other, and gave definitive and striking answers, unlike the majority of Palin's. She seemed to give the old "walk about" when it came to deep policy questions. When asked how we should fix this financial crisis, she didn't touch once on policy, instead saying that the American people should unite and proclaim, "Never again." Sorry, but I can scream "Never again" at the TV all day long. The stocks STILL go down.
• Palin related nearly every response to her work in Alaska, which for the most part was acceptable. She showed her experience and doings, but this only goes for the first 2 responses. Governor Palin, we have 49 other states in this great nation. This is NOT Ruslaska country.
• Biden was mistaken on many issues. I think his boxers were too tight.
• But, to be fair, so was Palin. You can check factcheck.org if you don't believe me.

I know this election isn't even here yet, but get ready. 2038, JONAS JONAS.

Elise Jonas, that is.

XXXXXXXX (8:41:26 PM): waiting on my dreams, the color of your smile

DIABEETUS

O hai, welkum to mythbusters!

-I'll explain that in another post, maybe, (I know Nicole understands that) but trust me, it does serve a purpose. Hey guys. Whatsup? I just wanted to blog and fulfill my NaBloPoMo duties for the day, by saying that I realized today the Obama Camp released an Obama Application for the iPod Touch and iPhone, and it's really cool, you can look through his stances on nearly every conceivable aspect of society. It's pretty odd how far along technology has come. It's even more peculiar how when one candidate says they don't know how to email, an entire country collectively shudders at the thought of being more in-tune with technology than arguably the most powerful man on the planet. That said, I noticed through Google Analytics that there are many newcomers to my site these couple days! That's probably due to my blogroll registation on nablopomo.ning.com. Thanks for coming, and please don't forget to vote in my presidential poll to your LEFT

<------------

Thank You!

High Tide & Green Grass

Green grass and high tide forever - ba-dum-ba-dum-pa-dum!

Hey guys! What's up? You know how my day was? It was horrible. It started with birds sitting on a lightpole above me pooping, and ended with me, well, just tired. But it's okay.


I'm better now.

And that's todays weather forecast!